Data Modeling the Kentucky Derby

The topic of Kentucky Derby bubbled up in one of my conversations with a co-worker and we talked  about the odds as to which horse will win. I have been taking up a Data Mining class and we are going through a lot of data modeling techniques and algorithms. A lot of these can be easily done using a wonderful open-source Java application called WEKA which is "a collection of machine learning algorithms for data mining tasks".

It dawned on me that it may be a good exercise to model the data from the Kentucky Derby and try to predict the winner based on selected variables. Rick Janava has done some neural net analysis in the past to determine winners in six-furlong [0.75 miles] claiming races [Kentucky Derby is 1.25 miles]. Using his approach ".. so far in the first 300 races, 39% of the winners have been predicted at odds which average better than 4.5 to 1".

Janava's work lends a good starting point for identifying the more significant variables that need to be used in the model. The data modeling for the Kentucky Derby is a good exercise in determining the most successful WEKA learning algorithm/s for this sort of data set. Hopefully by the next Kentucky Derby I can have some work to show for this problem.

C# Development in OSX Using MonoDevelop

"MonoDevelop is an IDE primarily designed for C# and other .NET languages. MonoDevelop enables developers to quickly write desktop and ASP.NET Web applications on Linux, Windows and Mac OSX. MonoDevelop makes it easy for developers to port .NET applications created with Visual Studio to Linux and to maintain a single code base for all platforms." - MonoDevelop

The OSX binary can be downloaded downloaded here. You will also  need the Mono 2.4+ GTK#  framework library.

One thing that seems to be missing  from MonoDevelop is the ability to interact with the built-in application console. If you have a line that requires input using Console.readLine(), you will get a runtime "System.ArgumentNullException" error because your application will just ignore the console input and try to run the succeeding lines. The preference for setting an external console does not seem to exist in the OSX version. I have not looked into other platforms to check if this is the prevailing trend.

In any case, in order to get past this bump, open Terminal and navigate to your project's folder executable file. In my OSX MonoDevelop installation where I have a project called TestProject this is the path:
/Users/macflores/projects/TestProject/TestProject/bin/debug 

Assuming you have successfully compiled your project, type in from the Terminal prompt:
tux:debug macflores$> mono TestProject.exe

And that's it! You're on your way to hacking in another language!

Firefox Slow Reloading jQuery Page With Firebug Enabled

For a page that has jQuery interactions, a page using Firefox with Firebug enabled loads veeeery slowly when the jQuery interaction is activated. If you disable Firebug without reloading the page, the jQuery interaction responds normally. Enable Firebug again without reloading the page and this time the jQuery interaction improves.

WOT Book 12: 'The Gathering Storm"

The first book of a trilogy to end the Wheel of Time series written by the late Robert Jordan. Brandon Sanderson has taken the helm in writing the final books to recap this exciting saga of Rand al'Thor. I'm glad that they split up the books. I'd hate to see the end written in just one book especially since there seem to be a lot of characters in the book that deserve buildup.

My only qualm about this book is that they should have provided a character list from the major to the minor characters, those that are dead, and further categorize the cast by group like Aes Sedai, Aiel, Borderlanders, Forsaken, etc. They do have a Glossary but it's not as useful.

Overall the book was pretty exciting. It resolves one of the major Aes Sedai subplots and leaves a cliffhanger with Rand al'Thor. 'can't wait to read the next book!

Jake Shimabukuro Concert In Chicago

My wife and I will be at Jake Shimabukuro's concert on April 26 at the Old Town School of Music.

Worth CT Tenor Ukulele Strings

During this past winter, the #1 ukulele string on my Pono tenor suddenly broke without any reason. I figure it was too cold in our basement [~67F] and the string just contracted too much. This is quite surprising because I've left my ukulele in the basement the previous year but the strings held true. The difference was that I was using Ko'olau Gold tenor strings during the previous year. I just switched to the Aquila nylgut strings last year.

Anyway, this gave me the opportunity to try out some Worth CT strings which were highly recommended in the ukulele forums that I've been in. I was able to snag a set of clear strings from eBay for ~$17 including shipping. The set consists of 63" lengths for each string. Hence, you're actually paying for 2 sets of strings. The price then is almost the same as what I spent for the Aquila nylgut strings.

The Worth strings are thinner than the Ko'olau Gold and Aquila nylgut strings. While the Ko'olau Gold had volume and the Aquila nylgut was crisp, the Worth CT was more mellow. It did not quite have the volume as the other two, however, the sound is very polished. They're also easier on the fingers and I recommend these strings for beginners.

Overall, I like these strings and I will stick to them for now ... until they snap again next winter.

Pono Koa Tenor: Another Ukulele Upgrade

After a few weeks of playing the OU5 concert ukulele I found out that I needed more frets up the bridge to do a lot of Jake Shimabukuro's pieces. I then decided to upgrade to a tenor ukulele.

After reading through the ukulele forums and consulting with a few people who know more ukulelia than I do, I decided to go for the Ko'olau Pono tenor. There was a solid mahogany version [PT] sold at Bounty Music for under $300. However, I opted for the koa version [PKT] with the gloss finish for about $30 more. I also got the hard case although there was already a gig bag included.

The PKT came with Ko'olau Gold strings with a #3 wound string. The sound was beautiful with these strings. The sound projection from the PKT was impressive to me who was used to trying to coax a little more volume from my OU5 concert by strumming or plucking harder. With the PKT, there was also a crispness in the sound. However, as I soon found out, the strings were a little bit too hard on my amateur fingers.

I've played electric, acoustic and classical guitar before but I've never had so much fatigue and soreness from playing for long lengths on these strings. Also, I was not used to the squeaking sound that the wound string makes when I do slides and chord transitions across the fretboard. These squeaks are OK for guitars but they have no place in a ukulele. Part of the reason I went from a guitar to a ukulele was to unload the complexity of a guitar's 2 additional strings. The sqeaks are an additional baggage that I can forget about.

Although there are Ko'olau Gold strings that have the #3 unwound, I still decided to ditch these strings. In any case, I have replaced the Ko'olau strings with Aquila Nylgut strings. These strings were a little more gentle on my fingers. Maybe someday when I'm a little more seasoned, I will go back to the Ko'olau Golds which I still believe are excellent strings.

Below are some views from the PKT:





The sound from the PKT is fabulous coming from someone who started with an OU5 concert uke. I've gotten used to the Aquila strings and they do seem to have a sharper and clearer tone to them. The PKT stays in tune for quite a while now that the new strings have stabilized. I usually still check the tuning out of habit and I rarely do any adjustments anyway.

There was a discussion in the EZFolk forum about the type of wood used in the PKT. I checked with teh dealer and they stated that the PKT is actually solid mahogany with a koa [veneer] top. In any case, it looks and sounds great.